MacroRead Score · Composite Economic Health Index
Macro indicators, made readable
10 indicators across credit markets, labor, global trade, and energy — the same data wealth managers and economists track, with plain-English context. No subscriptions, no jargon.
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Indicators expanding
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Neutral signals
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Stress signals
Composite Score · 0 to 100
ContractionNeutralExpansion
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Strong Expansion80–100
Moderate Expansion60–79
Neutral / Mixed40–59
Moderate Contraction20–39
Strong Contraction0–19
What changed this week
All Indicators at a Glance
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📋 MacroRead Analysis — What the Data Shows Today
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Key Readings to Watch
Extreme levels and rapid movements
MacroRead Score — Historical
MacroRead Score
SPY (normalized)
Key events (hover)
Red zone < 40 · Green zone > 60 · Hover chart for values
Historical Data
Cross-Indicator Insights
When independent signals align, the read is stronger
Market Context
What the bond market expects, separate from current fundamentals
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread
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Last 60 trading days
What bond traders are pricing in
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Fundamentals vs Market Expectations
MacroRead Score (current fundamentals)
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Implied by yield curve (12–24mo ahead)
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Not a recession predictor — shown for context only
The yield curve reflects bond trader expectations about future Fed policy, not current economic activity. Its recession-signaling reliability has weakened in the post-2022 era — the curve was inverted for 25+ months between 2022 and 2024 without producing a recession. This panel is displayed to help interpret the composite score, not to add another recession gauge.
Credit Markets
3 indicators
Credit market indicators measure the cost and availability of borrowing. When credit conditions tighten, businesses and consumers face higher costs — often a leading signal before broader economic slowdowns appear in official data.
Labor & Business Activity
3 indicators
Labor indicators reveal the confidence of workers and employers. Quits data and claims figures often turn before official unemployment — giving an earlier read on where the economy is heading.
Trade & Commodities
2 indicators
Trade and commodity signals reflect real-world demand for raw materials and finished goods. These represent physical activity — harder to manipulate and highly credible as economic signals.
Energy
2 indicators
Energy data captures demand from households, industry, and transport. Storage deviations and refinery margins provide independent reads on real-economy consumption trends.
Methodology
Each indicator is normalized to a 0–100 scale using its distribution since 2000, then combined with fixed weights. A score of 50 represents neutral conditions historically. All weights sum to 100%. Indicators with higher update frequency and stronger predictive track records carry greater weight.
Normalization window: 2000–present, capturing full-cycle variation including 2008 and 2020 extremes. ADS Business Conditions and Initial Jobless Claims have a known overlap (ADS uses claims as one of six inputs); both are retained at reduced weights to account for this. Lagging indicators (Credit Card Delinquency) carry reduced weight to reflect publication lag. This index measures economic fundamentals, not market sentiment — during fast-moving market events, the score may take days or weeks to fully reflect changed conditions as underlying economic data is released.
| Indicator | Source | Cadence | Weight | Data Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | — | |||
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is MacroRead designed for?▼
MacroRead is for anyone who wants to understand the economic environment more clearly — whether you follow markets closely, have a general interest in how the economy works, or simply want more context than financial news headlines provide. The site presents publicly available data with plain-English explanations, without requiring economics training to interpret.
Where does the data come from?▼
All 10 indicators are sourced from primary public providers: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Philadelphia Fed, EIA, Yahoo Finance futures data, and the Baltic Exchange. No paid data subscriptions are used.
How is the MacroRead Score calculated?▼
Each indicator is normalized to a 0–100 scale using its distribution since 2000, then combined using fixed weights. All weights sum to 100%. The composite recalculates daily. Monthly and quarterly inputs are held at their most recent value between updates and labelled as stale accordingly.
What does the historical chart show?▼
The chart shows the MacroRead composite score over time alongside S&P 500 performance. This allows you to see how macro conditions have evolved and how they have correlated — or diverged — with market performance. The chart does not predict future market returns.
Why is the yield curve shown but not included in the score?▼
The yield curve (10Y-2Y Treasury spread) reflects bond trader expectations about future Fed policy, not current economic activity. MacroRead's composite score measures fundamentals — what is actually happening in credit, labor, trade, and energy right now. Additionally, the yield curve's recession-signaling reliability has weakened significantly in the post-2022 era: the curve was inverted for 25+ months between 2022 and 2024 without producing a recession. We show it as Market Context so you can compare current fundamentals against what bond traders are pricing in, but we deliberately exclude it from the composite to keep the score focused on observable economic activity.
Why do Initial Jobless Claims and ADS both appear?▼
The ADS Business Conditions Index incorporates weekly jobless claims as one of its six inputs, creating partial overlap. Both are retained because ADS provides a broader real-time composite of overall business conditions while Initial Claims provides a direct, timely weekly read on layoffs. Both carry slightly reduced weights to account for this overlap.
How does MacroRead differ from the CNN Fear and Greed Index?▼
The CNN Fear & Greed Index measures market sentiment — how investors feel. MacroRead measures economic fundamentals — what the real economy is actually doing. MacroRead tracks credit conditions, employment, shipping demand, and energy consumption rather than VIX, put/call ratios, or stock momentum. The two can diverge significantly: markets can panic while fundamentals hold, or fundamentals can weaken while markets rally.
Can the MacroRead Score predict recessions?▼
MacroRead is designed to measure current economic conditions, not predict future outcomes. However, sustained readings below 40 have historically coincided with recessionary periods. The score confirmed the COVID-19 contraction (score 34) and elevated stress during the 2022 rate hiking cycle. Because some indicators lag by weeks or months, the score may take time to fully reflect rapidly changing conditions.